🌅 FII/DII Morning Report — Thu, 16 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (15-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹13,207 Cr | Sell ₹13,943 Cr | Net -₹736 Cr ▼

DII: Buy ₹16,226 Cr | Sell ₹15,521 Cr | Net +₹705 Cr ▲

Combined Net: -₹31 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

--------------------------------------------------------------

FII 26,357 289,069 -262,712 Short — ★

DII 76,670 10,920 +65,750 Long Opposed

Client 230,456 57,864 +172,592 Long Opposed

Pro 52,300 27,930 +24,370 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (15-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDEX +2,753 -3,381 +0.13 Weak Bullish Short Covering —

NIFTY +2,160 -2,002 +0.21 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 24,078.50 +26.45 (+0.11%)

BANKNIFTY +860 -1,680 +0.09 Weak Bullish Short Covering 57,757.85 +295.55 (+0.51%)

FINNIFTY +14 -12 +0.26 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 26,693.35 +156.65 (+0.59%)

MIDCPNIFTY -295 +301 -0.27 Moderate Bearish Short Buildup 14,771.45 +58.80 (+0.40%)

NIFTYNXT50 +14 +12 +0.88 Strong Bullish Long Buildup 72,148.80 +297.20 (+0.41%)

STOCK -28,725 +1,525 -0.05 Neutral Short Buildup —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (15-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,62,712 +0.81 Strong Bullish

DII +65,750 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +1,72,592 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +24,370 +0.92 Strong Bullish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +5,17,513 -1.00 Strong Bearish

DII -38,63,115 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +28,83,940 +0.06 Weak Bullish

Pro +4,61,662 -0.02 Neutral

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,29,394 -0.46 +5,00,928 -0.02 -0.24 Moderate Bearish

DII +5,190 -0.56 +32,130 +1.00 +0.44 Strong Bullish

Client +1,12,292 -0.01 -6,50,665 +0.03 +0.02 Neutral

Pro +1,11,911 +0.24 +1,17,607 -0.14 +0.10 Weak Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,55,046 -0.39 +1,41,055 -0.25 -0.32 Strong Bearish

DII -3,99,640 -0.60 +23,570 +1.00 +0.40 Strong Bullish

Client +10,71,626 +0.41 -3,44,892 -0.02 +0.39 Strong Bullish

Pro -5,16,940 -0.52 +1,80,267 +0.13 -0.39 Strong Bearish

S1 Futures OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S2 Options OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : 0/3 → Neutral

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII sold ₹736 Cr in cash for the third consecutive day while index futures shifted into Short Covering with Weak Bullish FSR +0.13, but the critical signal is that index options Combined OFR remained Moderate Bearish at -0.24 and stock options stayed Strong Bearish at -0.32, confirming FII's directional bearish conviction persists despite reduced futures selling intensity. DII absorbed ₹705 Cr mechanically but their index futures OFR collapsed from Strong Bearish to Neutral, revealing their support is rebalancing-driven rather than conviction-backed. Clients stand isolated at +172,592 net long in index futures, completely opposed to both FII and DII, creating the exact inflection structure where historically FII tends to be correct.

FII has executed three consecutive sessions of selling totaling -₹4,538 Cr with both index and stock options bearish throughout, establishing genuine directional conviction that survived the weekly expiry resolution and extends into the monthly cycle. DII's ₹5,804 Cr week total buying is entirely mechanical—their options positioning shows no conviction backing, with index futures OFR swinging from Strong Bearish to Neutral in a single session. The week pattern is one of established FII selling conviction with deteriorating domestic institutional support and clients as the only structural long force.

FII entered this week with defensive hedging that converted into genuine directional selling conviction by Tuesday's weekly expiry, and yesterday's Short Covering in index futures represents reduced selling intensity of the same bearish stance, not a reversal—the three-day selling pattern remains intact with options positioning confirming the bearishness is real. DII's mechanical support is fragile with no conviction backing it, and clients' isolated long positioning against both major institutional forces creates acute structural vulnerability as the monthly expiry cycle (13 days remaining) begins.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.