🌙 FII/DII Evening Report — Thu, 16 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (16-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹13,576 Cr | Sell ₹17,782 Cr | Net -₹4,206 Cr ▼

DII: Buy ₹19,237 Cr | Sell ₹16,250 Cr | Net +₹2,986 Cr ▲

Combined Net: -₹1,219 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

--------------------------------------------------------------

FII 25,419 275,305 -249,886 Short — ★

DII 74,619 10,920 +63,699 Long Opposed

Client 228,686 59,851 +168,835 Long Opposed

Pro 46,950 29,598 +17,352 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (16-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDEX +12,826 -14,702 +0.40 Strong Bullish Short Covering —

NIFTY +13,983 -14,583 +0.53 Strong Bullish Short Covering 24,072.75 -5.75 (-0.02%)

BANKNIFTY -1,024 -270 -0.18 Moderate Bearish Long Unwinding 57,582.25 -175.60 (-0.30%)

FINNIFTY -42 +44 -0.48 Strong Bearish Short Buildup 26,556.70 -136.65 (-0.51%)

MIDCPNIFTY -100 +98 -0.29 Moderate Bearish Short Buildup 14,774.40 +2.95 (+0.02%)

NIFTYNXT50 +9 +9 +0.82 Strong Bullish Long Buildup 71,896.75 -252.05 (-0.35%)

STOCK +16,654 +12,050 +0.03 Neutral Long Buildup —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (16-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,49,886 +0.87 Strong Bullish

DII +63,699 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Client +1,68,835 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +17,352 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +5,34,167 +1.00 Strong Bullish

DII -38,90,083 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Client +28,82,523 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +4,73,393 +0.17 Moderate Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,18,883 +0.21 +4,88,171 +0.23 +0.22 Moderate Bullish

DII +7,715 +1.00 +32,190 -1.00 +0.00 Neutral

Client +84,609 -0.06 -6,45,158 -0.01 -0.03 Neutral

Pro +1,26,560 +0.13 +1,24,797 -0.04 +0.09 Weak Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,60,390 -0.14 +1,40,854 +0.01 -0.13 Weak Bearish

DII -4,07,165 -1.00 +22,353 +0.47 -0.53 Strong Bearish

Client +10,94,177 +0.24 -3,36,336 -0.15 +0.09 Weak Bullish

Pro -5,26,622 -0.18 +1,73,129 +0.17 -0.02 Neutral

S1 Futures OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S2 Options OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S3 Cash Market : -1 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : +1/3 → Weak Bullish

⚠️ HEDGING WARNING: ACTIVE — FII using derivatives to hedge cash, not a directional bet

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII sold ₹4,206 Cr in cash today, the largest single-day outflow of the week, extending the four-day selling streak to -₹8,743 Cr total. Index futures show Short Covering with Strong Bullish FSR +0.40 and Nifty specifically at +0.53, but this is the critical cross-check failure: cash market is heavily negative while futures are covering shorts, the textbook signature of portfolio hedging. Index options Combined OFR confirms this at +0.22 Moderate Bullish, but stock options Combined OFR turned Weak Bearish at -0.13, creating a split signal across derivatives. The conviction score fires a Hedging Warning—S1 and S2 both bullish but S3 cash is -1 bearish—meaning FII is using derivatives to protect their equity portfolio against further declines, not expressing genuine directional conviction. DII absorbed ₹2,986 Cr mechanically but their index futures OFR collapsed to -1.00 Strong Bearish, revealing their support is now actively cracking rather than merely rebalancing. Clients remain the only structural long force at +168,835 net long in index futures, still opposed to FII, but with DII now bearish alongside FII, the domestic institutional floor has broken.

Morning established FII's three-day selling pattern as genuine bearish conviction with options confirming it, DII providing fragile mechanical support, and clients isolated long. Today's close broke that picture: FII's fourth-day selling is now clearly defensive hedging rather than directional conviction, and DII's support has inverted into active bearishness, removing the last institutional floor beneath the market.

FII has now executed four consecutive sessions of cash selling totaling -₹8,743 Cr with derivatives showing hedging activity rather than directional positioning, meaning their equity portfolio is under pressure and they are protecting it rather than betting on further declines. DII's complete reversal from mechanical support to Strong Bearish positioning in both index and stock futures OFR signals genuine institutional concern, not rebalancing. Clients remain heavily long and opposed to both major institutional forces, but with the domestic institutional floor now actively bearish and FII hedging defensively, the structural vulnerability that existed yesterday has intensified into a two-institution sell-off with only retail clients providing bids. The monthly expiry cycle (12 days remaining) begins with institutional conviction aligned bearish and no conviction-backed support visible anywhere in the data.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.