🌙 FII/DII Evening Report — Wed, 15 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (15-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹13,207 Cr | Sell ₹13,943 Cr | Net -₹736 Cr ▼

DII: Buy ₹16,226 Cr | Sell ₹15,521 Cr | Net +₹705 Cr ▲

Combined Net: -₹31 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

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FII 26,357 289,069 -262,712 Short — ★

DII 76,670 10,920 +65,750 Long Opposed

Client 230,456 57,864 +172,592 Long Opposed

Pro 52,300 27,930 +24,370 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (15-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

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INDEX +2,753 -3,381 +0.13 Weak Bullish Short Covering —

NIFTY +2,160 -2,002 +0.21 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 24,078.50 +26.45 (+0.11%)

BANKNIFTY +860 -1,680 +0.09 Weak Bullish Short Covering 57,757.85 +295.55 (+0.51%)

FINNIFTY +14 -12 +0.26 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 26,693.35 +156.65 (+0.59%)

MIDCPNIFTY -295 +301 -0.27 Moderate Bearish Short Buildup 14,771.45 +58.80 (+0.40%)

NIFTYNXT50 +14 +12 +0.88 Strong Bullish Long Buildup 72,148.80 +297.20 (+0.41%)

STOCK -28,725 +1,525 -0.05 Neutral Short Buildup —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (15-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,62,712 +0.81 Strong Bullish

DII +65,750 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +1,72,592 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +24,370 +0.92 Strong Bullish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +5,17,513 -1.00 Strong Bearish

DII -38,63,115 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +28,83,940 +0.06 Weak Bullish

Pro +4,61,662 -0.02 Neutral

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,29,394 -0.46 +5,00,928 -0.02 -0.24 Moderate Bearish

DII +5,190 -0.56 +32,130 +1.00 +0.44 Strong Bullish

Client +1,12,292 -0.01 -6,50,665 +0.03 +0.02 Neutral

Pro +1,11,911 +0.24 +1,17,607 -0.14 +0.10 Weak Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,55,046 -0.39 +1,41,055 -0.25 -0.32 Strong Bearish

DII -3,99,640 -0.60 +23,570 +1.00 +0.40 Strong Bullish

Client +10,71,626 +0.41 -3,44,892 -0.02 +0.39 Strong Bullish

Pro -5,16,940 -0.52 +1,80,267 +0.13 -0.39 Strong Bearish

S1 Futures OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S2 Options OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : 0/3 → Neutral

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII continued selling cash for the third consecutive day at -₹736 Cr while index futures shifted from unwinding into Short Covering with Weak Bullish FSR +0.13, signaling reduced selling intensity but not conviction reversal. The critical cross-check: index options Combined OFR flipped from Neutral -0.05 yesterday to Moderate Bearish -0.24 today, while stock options remained Strong Bearish -0.32, confirming FII's directional bearish positioning persists despite the futures covering activity. DII absorbed another ₹705 Cr in cash and showed Strong Bullish positioning across both index and stock options Combined OFR at +0.44 and +0.40 respectively, but their index futures OFR turned Neutral at +0.81 from yesterday's Strong Bearish -1.00, indicating their support is mechanical rebalancing rather than conviction accumulation. Clients stand completely opposed to FII across index futures at +172,592 net while showing Strong Bullish stock options at +0.39, creating the exact inflection pattern where historically FII tends to be correct—FII short, clients long, DII uncertain. FII Conviction Score settled at Neutral 0/3 because index futures OFR turned bullish (+1) while options remained bearish (-1) and cash stayed routine (0), masking the underlying reality that options Combined OFR is the cleaner signal and it remains bearish, not neutral.

This morning's report established FII's genuine directional selling conviction across both index and stock derivatives with deteriorating DII support and clients isolated as the only long force after weekly expiry resolved. Today's close confirmed the selling conviction persists in options positioning while futures covering activity represents reduced intensity of the same bearish stance, not a reversal—the pattern continues unbroken across three consecutive sessions with DII's support remaining mechanical rather than conviction-driven.

FII has now sold cash for three straight sessions totaling -₹4,538 Cr with index and stock options both bearish, establishing genuine directional conviction that extends beyond the weekly expiry resolution into the monthly cycle. DII's ₹5,804 Cr week total buying is entirely mechanical rebalancing with no options conviction backing it—their index futures OFR collapsed from Strong Bearish to Neutral in one session, revealing the support is fragile. Clients remain the isolated long force completely opposed to both major institutional sellers, creating structural vulnerability with no conviction floor beneath the market as the monthly expiry cycle (13 days) begins.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.