🌅 FII/DII Morning Report — Mon, 13 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (10-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹15,318 Cr | Sell ₹12,714 Cr | Net +₹2,604 Cr ▲

DII: Buy ₹17,172 Cr | Sell ₹15,152 Cr | Net +₹2,020 Cr ▲

Combined Net: +₹4,623 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

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FII 34,427 289,138 -254,711 Short — ★

DII 78,304 10,880 +67,424 Long Opposed

Client 230,182 60,551 +169,631 Long Opposed

Pro 51,172 33,516 +17,656 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (10-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

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INDEX +11,540 -5,596 +0.44 Strong Bullish Short Covering —

NIFTY +5,986 -4,950 +0.35 Strong Bullish Short Covering 24,206.90 +244.10 (+1.02%)

BANKNIFTY +5,400 -558 +0.62 Strong Bullish Short Covering 58,045.90 +793.45 (+1.39%)

FINNIFTY +4 -6 +0.13 Weak Bullish Short Covering 26,831.05 +348.60 (+1.32%)

MIDCPNIFTY +120 -50 +0.29 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 14,820.90 +166.10 (+1.13%)

NIFTYNXT50 +30 -32 +0.62 Strong Bullish Short Covering 72,391.80 +905.95 (+1.27%)

STOCK +46,857 +4,595 +0.09 Weak Bullish Long Buildup —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (10-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,54,711 +1.00 Strong Bullish

DII +67,424 -0.98 Strong Bearish

Client +1,69,631 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +17,656 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +6,38,428 +1.00 Strong Bullish

DII -39,39,094 +0.12 Weak Bullish

Client +28,45,160 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +4,55,506 -0.85 Strong Bearish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,18,611 +1.00 +4,78,558 +0.16 +0.58 Strong Bullish

DII +4,821 -0.93 +28,435 -1.00 -0.96 Strong Bearish

Client +38,875 -0.50 -6,29,518 -0.01 -0.26 Moderate Bearish

Pro +1,74,916 +1.00 +1,22,524 -0.05 +0.95 Strong Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,33,821 -0.15 +1,25,070 +0.09 -0.06 Weak Bearish

DII -3,43,919 -0.55 +24,499 +0.43 -0.12 Weak Bearish

Client +8,23,922 -0.16 -3,01,052 -0.40 -0.28 Moderate Bearish

Pro -3,46,182 +0.28 +1,51,483 +0.40 +0.34 Strong Bullish

S1 Futures OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S2 Options OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : +2/3 → Moderate Bullish

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII bought ₹2,604 Cr in cash while executing Short Covering in index futures with Strong Bullish FSR of +0.44, but this apparent bullish alignment masks a defensive structure: index futures net shorts remained deeply negative at -254,711 contracts despite the covering activity, while stock futures net longs of +638,428 with Weak Bullish FSR of +0.09 reveal FII's real conviction sits in individual stock selection, not macro direction. Index options Combined OFR at +0.58 Strong Bullish confirms the derivatives positioning is genuine, but the conviction score of +2/3 Moderate Bullish (S1 and S2 both +1, S3 neutral at ₹2,604 Cr against ₹3,800 Cr threshold) shows Friday's cash deployment was routine rather than conviction-driven—FII is hedging existing equity positions, not attacking. DII matched with ₹2,020 Cr buying but index options Combined OFR turned Strong Bearish at -0.96, signaling domestic institutions are fading FII's move rather than supporting it, with the domestic institutional floor now actively opposing rather than providing structural support.

This is the first trading day of the new week—Friday 10-Jul was the final session of the prior week that ended with FII's defensive short-covering posture and DII's fractured positioning. The week pattern established through Friday showed FII progressively hedging rather than building conviction, with index options Combined OFR collapsing from +0.58 Monday to -0.96 Wednesday before recovering Friday, confirming the week was mechanical rebalancing rather than directional accumulation. DII's ₹8,276 Cr week total masked internal instability: Monday's Strong Bullish conviction at +1.00 index options OFR reversed into Tuesday's selling and Wednesday's conflicted signals, leaving domestic capital uncertain and unwilling to provide additional support into next week. The multi-week arc shows both FII and DII reducing net directional exposure while appearing to accumulate in cash—a pattern of defensive positioning that has now extended into a second consecutive week.

FII carries forward a hedged long-equity-short-index structure that is fundamentally defensive: -254,711 index futures shorts being systematically closed through Short Covering, while +638,428 stock futures longs remain concentrated in individual stock conviction—they are protecting existing positions, not attacking. DII's ₹8,276 Cr accumulation is being progressively hedged with index options turning Strong Bearish by Friday, confirming domestic institutions sense FII's defensive posture and are unwilling to provide additional structural support—the domestic institutional floor has cracked. Weekly expiry tomorrow will force rapid position resolution across all participants, and the market enters this week without institutional conviction: FII is protecting rather than attacking, DII is fading rather than supporting, and Client opposition remains unhedged at +169,631 index futures net longs—a structural imbalance that leaves the market vulnerable to rapid repricing when expiry forces position unwinding.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.