🌅 FII/DII Morning Report — Fri, 10 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (09-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹14,388 Cr | Sell ₹14,921 Cr | Net -₹533 Cr ▼

DII: Buy ₹18,303 Cr | Sell ₹16,245 Cr | Net +₹2,058 Cr ▲

Combined Net: +₹1,525 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

--------------------------------------------------------------

FII 31,455 297,706 -266,251 Short — ★

DII 78,283 8,602 +69,681 Long Opposed

Client 238,476 58,860 +179,616 Long Opposed

Pro 50,489 33,535 +16,954 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (09-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDEX +2,335 +125 +0.09 Weak Bullish Long Buildup —

NIFTY +1,319 +407 +0.08 Weak Bullish Long Buildup 23,962.80 +80.75 (+0.34%)

BANKNIFTY +1,173 -451 +0.13 Weak Bullish Short Covering 57,252.45 +509.85 (+0.90%)

FINNIFTY +10 -14 +0.19 Moderate Bullish Short Covering 26,482.45 +158.70 (+0.60%)

MIDCPNIFTY -149 +201 -0.16 Moderate Bearish Short Buildup 14,654.80 +235.70 (+1.63%)

NIFTYNXT50 -18 -18 -0.33 Strong Bearish Long Unwinding 71,485.85 +587.10 (+0.83%)

STOCK +14,016 +8,182 +0.02 Neutral Long Buildup —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (09-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,66,251 +1.00 Strong Bullish

DII +69,681 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Client +1,79,616 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Pro +16,954 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +5,91,571 +1.00 Strong Bullish

DII -39,43,824 -0.80 Strong Bearish

Client +28,76,982 +0.32 Strong Bullish

Pro +4,75,271 -0.19 Moderate Bearish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,56,228 +1.00 +5,24,225 +0.32 +0.66 Strong Bullish

DII +6,101 +0.94 +28,280 -1.00 -0.06 Weak Bearish

Client +1,71,975 -0.37 -6,45,560 +0.02 -0.35 Strong Bearish

Pro +78,153 +0.77 +93,055 -0.16 +0.62 Strong Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,28,669 -0.39 +1,28,362 -0.45 -0.42 Strong Bearish

DII -3,37,435 -0.98 +24,879 +0.99 +0.01 Neutral

Client +8,34,291 +0.34 -3,28,314 -0.26 +0.08 Weak Bullish

Pro -3,68,187 -0.09 +1,75,073 +0.56 +0.47 Strong Bullish

S1 Futures OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S2 Options OFR : +1 (Bullish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : +2/3 → Moderate Bullish

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII sold ₹533 Cr in cash while buying 2,335 net index futures contracts with Weak Bullish FSR of +0.09, creating a direct contradiction that signals portfolio hedging rather than directional conviction. Index options Combined OFR confirms Strong Bullish at +0.66, aligning both derivatives instruments bullish while cash remained negative—this is the classic hedging signature where FII uses derivatives to protect equity holdings against further declines. The conviction score of +2/3 Moderate Bullish reflects S1 and S2 both strongly positive while S3 remained neutral, confirming FII's derivatives shift is hedging-driven, not directional. DII bought ₹2,058 Cr in cash with index options Combined OFR at -0.06 Weak Bearish, confirming domestic institutions are protecting rather than accumulating with genuine conviction.

FII has spent four consecutive sessions in hedging mode—Monday through Thursday shows no genuine directional conviction, only defensive positioning that shifts between short protection and long protection as market conditions change. The week's +₹2,066 Cr FII cash total masks the reality that each session's positioning is mechanical unwinding or rehedging rather than conviction-driven accumulation. DII's ₹6,256 Cr week total appears strong but is fractured internally: Monday's ₹3,791 Cr buy reversed into Tuesday's ₹383 Cr sell, then Wednesday's ₹790 Cr buy, then Thursday's ₹2,058 Cr buy—domestic institutions are rotating defensively, not building structural support.

FII enters today with index futures net short at -266,251 contracts and stock futures net long at +591,571 contracts, maintaining the same hedging posture it has held all week—long equity exposure protected by short index futures. All major participants remain opposed to each other across index futures with no unified conviction: FII short, DII/Client/Pro all long. The institutional environment is one of mutual hedging with no structural floor in place, and the week's apparent ₹8,322 Cr combined inflow masks the absence of genuine directional conviction from any single participant category.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.