🌅 FII/DII Morning Report — Thu, 9 Jul, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (08-Jul-2026)

FII: Buy ₹17,464 Cr | Sell ₹15,501 Cr | Net +₹1,963 Cr ▲

DII: Buy ₹19,165 Cr | Sell ₹18,375 Cr | Net +₹790 Cr ▲

Combined Net: +₹2,753 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

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FII 30,225 298,811 -268,586 Short — ★

DII 79,832 8,602 +71,230 Long Opposed

Client 245,471 58,316 +187,155 Long Opposed

Pro 46,256 36,055 +10,201 Long Opposed

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (08-Jul-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

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INDEX -29,748 +24,778 -0.48 Strong Bearish Short Buildup —

NIFTY -20,624 +22,730 -0.49 Strong Bearish Short Buildup 23,882.05 -516.65 (-2.12%)

BANKNIFTY -8,138 +2,492 -0.48 Strong Bearish Short Buildup 56,742.60 -1,458.10 (-2.51%)

FINNIFTY -39 +27 -0.36 Strong Bearish Short Buildup 26,323.75 -661.30 (-2.45%)

MIDCPNIFTY -914 -446 -0.42 Strong Bearish Long Unwinding 14,419.10 -219.35 (-1.50%)

NIFTYNXT50 -33 -25 -0.31 Strong Bearish Long Unwinding 70,898.75 -1,349.70 (-1.87%)

STOCK -26,137 -56,867 -0.03 Neutral Long Unwinding —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (08-Jul-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,68,586 -1.00 Strong Bearish

DII +71,230 +0.50 Strong Bullish

Client +1,87,155 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Pro +10,201 +0.47 Strong Bullish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +5,77,555 -0.46 Strong Bearish

DII -39,20,911 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +28,62,093 -0.66 Strong Bearish

Pro +4,81,263 +0.24 Moderate Bullish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,83,151 -0.27 +5,46,664 -0.36 -0.31 Strong Bearish

DII +5,805 +0.26 +27,800 -0.88 -0.61 Strong Bearish

Client +2,94,172 +0.07 -6,28,922 +0.20 +0.14 Weak Bullish

Pro -16,827 -0.04 +54,458 -0.04 -0.04 Neutral

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -1,12,714 -0.36 +1,11,455 -0.73 -0.54 Strong Bearish

DII -3,03,169 -0.99 +26,281 +1.00 +0.01 Neutral

Client +7,73,792 +0.99 -3,54,370 +1.00 +0.99 Strong Bullish

Pro -3,57,909 -0.45 +2,16,634 -0.53 -0.49 Strong Bearish

S1 Futures OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S2 Options OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : -2/3 → Moderate Bearish

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII bought ₹1,963 Cr in cash while executing aggressive Short Buildup in index futures with Strong Bearish FSR of -0.49, creating a direct contradiction between cash direction and derivatives direction that signals portfolio hedging rather than directional conviction. Index options Combined OFR confirmed Strong Bearish at -0.31, aligning both derivatives instruments bearish while cash remained bullish—this is the classic hedging signature where FII uses derivatives to protect equity holdings rather than express a directional view. DII bought ₹790 Cr in cash with index futures OFR Strong Bullish at +0.50 but index options Combined OFR turned Strong Bearish at -0.61, creating internal conflict within domestic institutional positioning itself—DII is accumulating on weakness defensively rather than from conviction. The conviction score of -2/3 Moderate Bearish reflects S1 and S2 both strongly negative while S3 remained neutral, confirming FII's derivatives shift is hedging-driven, not directional, and all three other participants (DII, Client, Pro) opposed FII's short positioning but with fractured conviction across their own options signals.

Monday through Wednesday shows FII progressively building index shorts while maintaining cash buying—a two-day pattern of reducing net equity exposure through derivatives while appearing to accumulate in cash. DII's pattern fractured after Monday's ₹3,791 Cr buy: Tuesday saw ₹383 Cr selling that broke the domestic floor, and Wednesday's ₹790 Cr return to buying came alongside bearish derivatives signals, indicating DII is now hedging rather than providing structural support. The week total of +₹2,599 Cr FII and +₹4,198 Cr DII masks the deteriorating conviction underneath—both participants are reducing net exposure while the cash numbers appear positive.

FII entered this week in mechanical short covering mode after prior week's bearish positioning, with Monday's unified bullish derivatives signals suggesting conviction had returned, but Tuesday's collapse into neutral options and Wednesday's shift into aggressive Short Buildup with Strong Bearish derivatives alignment reveals the entire week was defensive hedging, not genuine accumulation. DII's domestic floor cracked on Tuesday and never fully recovered—Wednesday's buying came with bearish derivatives, confirming domestic institutions are protecting existing positions rather than taking fresh directional risk. The institutional environment a trader faces today is fundamentally different from Monday: both major participants are in hedging mode with no genuine conviction, Client and Pro remain opposed to FII but their own signals are fractured, and the market enters the new week with no institutional support structure in place—only mutual defensive positioning.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.