🌅 FII/DII Morning Report — Tue, 30 Jun, 2026

FSR (Flow Strength Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how one-sided FII's futures buying vs selling was — not the absolute size but the relative aggression. Two sessions with identical net contracts can have very different FSR values depending on total activity.

Positive = FII bought more contracts than sold (bullish flow)

Negative = FII sold more contracts than bought (bearish flow)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Reliability: Nifty most reliable → BankNifty → MidCap Nifty → FinNifty and NiftyNext50 least reliable. Stock futures is a broad signal only — individual stock breakdown not available.

OFR (OI Flow Ratio): Range -1 to +1

Measures how a participant's accumulated long and short positions shifted compared to the previous session — not how much they traded today but how their total positioning changed.

Positive = participant adding longs or closing shorts (bullish positioning shift)

Negative = participant adding shorts or closing longs (bearish positioning shift)

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Caution: Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII because portfolio hedging inflates their futures positions. For DII, Client, and Pro, futures OFR is more likely directional but still less reliable than options Combined OFR. Always prefer options Combined OFR over futures OFR when they conflict.

Combined OFR: Range -1 to +1

Merges Call OFR and Put OFR into one unified options signal per participant. Shown for options rows only — futures rows show dash because futures have only one OFR value.

When Call and Put OFR agree — high confidence directional signal.

When Call and Put OFR conflict — dominant side wins but with reduced conviction. The conflict itself is meaningful.

Put OFR sign is automatically flipped so positive always means bullish — consistent with calls and futures.

Strength: >=0.30 Strong | >=0.15 Moderate | >=0.05 Weak | <0.05 Neutral

Signals:

Long Buildup = OI up + Net Buy → fresh longs added, bullish

Short Buildup = OI up + Net Sell → fresh shorts added, bearish

Short Covering = OI down + Net Buy → shorts being closed, bullish

Long Unwinding = OI down + Net Sell → longs being closed, bearish

Conviction Score (S1+S2+S3): Range -3 to +3

Three independent FII signals combined — futures positioning shift, options positioning shift, and actual cash deployment.

S1 = Index Futures OFR → >+0.05 bullish | <-0.05 bearish | else neutral

S2 = Index Options Combined OFR → same thresholds

S3 = FII Cash Net vs dynamic threshold (75th pctile of past 1yr flows)

+3 Strong Bullish | +2 Moderate Bullish | +1 Weak Bullish | 0 Neutral

-1 Weak Bearish | -2 Moderate Bearish | -3 Strong Bearish

Hedging Warning: fires when S1=S2 but S3 contradicts — FII using derivatives to hedge equity portfolio, not a directional bet. Do not treat conviction score as directional when active.

Battle Table:

Positive net = net long (bullish) | Negative net = net short (bearish)

Neutral = less than 2% directional bias

Aligned = same direction as FII | Opposed = opposite to FII

★ = Dominant participant (largest absolute net position)

When Client Opposed to FII → historically FII tends to be correct at inflection points.

💰 CASH MARKET (29-Jun-2026)

FII: Buy ₹24,754 Cr | Sell ₹26,104 Cr | Net -₹1,350 Cr ▼

DII: Buy ₹55,274 Cr | Sell ₹52,472 Cr | Net +₹2,801 Cr ▲

Combined Net: +₹1,451 Cr

Participant Long Short Net Direction vs FII

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FII 60,489 294,940 -234,451 Short — ★

DII 82,029 11,796 +70,233 Long Opposed

Client 244,810 77,464 +167,346 Long Opposed

Pro 49,806 52,934 -3,128 Short Aligned

📊 INSTRUMENT WISE FUTURES SIGNAL (29-Jun-2026)

Note: Net Contracts = Today's buy contracts - today's sell contracts. Positive = FII bought more than sold. Negative = FII sold more than bought.

OI Change = Change in total open interest vs previous day. Positive = new contracts added (OI increased). Negative = contracts squared off (OI reduced).

Instrument Net Contracts OI Change FSR Strength Signal Price & Change

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INDEX -10,642 +29,196 -0.06 Weak Bearish Short Buildup —

NIFTY -4,636 +14,328 -0.04 Neutral Short Buildup 23,946.25 -109.75 (-0.46%)

BANKNIFTY -5,889 +13,729 -0.13 Weak Bearish Short Buildup 57,727.35 -449.70 (-0.77%)

FINNIFTY -32 +66 -0.21 Moderate Bearish Short Buildup 26,598.35 -172.20 (-0.64%)

MIDCPNIFTY -85 +1,075 -0.01 Neutral Short Buildup 14,367.40 -67.15 (-0.47%)

NIFTYNXT50 0 -2 +0.00 Neutral No Change 71,510.30 -689.25 (-0.95%)

STOCK +23,300 -95,750 +0.01 Neutral Short Covering —

👥 PARTICIPANT OI (29-Jun-2026)

Note: All participant OI data is combined across all expiries — NSE F&O data only. Not expiry specific. Current month contracts are the most liquid — majority of activity happens there — data can be used accordingly.

Conviction Score is available for FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — less so for DII, Client, and Pro who are more likely directional.

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use index futures to hedge their equity portfolio. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction, not hedging. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII -2,34,451 -0.36 Strong Bearish

DII +70,233 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Client +1,67,346 +1.00 Strong Bullish

Pro -3,128 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Note: Net OI = Long OI - Short OI. This is NOT daily buy/sell — it is the total accumulated position. Positive = longs are more than shorts. Negative = shorts are more than longs.

FII negative Net OI does not always mean FII is heavily bearish — FII may use stock futures to hedge individual stock positions. However if options Combined OFR also turns bearish simultaneously, it is genuine directional conviction. Always cross-check with options Combined OFR and FII Conviction Score before concluding.

Participant Net OI OFR Strength

FII +6,76,291 +0.24 Moderate Bullish

DII -40,12,296 +0.22 Moderate Bullish

Client +29,56,464 +0.03 Neutral

Pro +3,79,541 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,45,372 +0.03 +6,16,220 -0.14 -0.11 Weak Bearish

DII +6,059 +0.39 +25,663 -1.00 -0.61 Strong Bearish

Client +2,15,922 +0.04 -7,46,908 +0.03 +0.04 Neutral

Pro +23,391 -0.09 +1,05,023 +0.02 -0.07 Weak Bearish

Note: Call Net OI = Call Long - Call Short. Positive = net long calls (bullish). Negative = net short calls (bearish).

Put Net OI = Put Long - Put Short. Positive = net long puts (bearish). Negative = net short puts (bullish).

Always prefer Combined OFR for options — it gives the complete directional picture.

Participant Call Net OI Call OFR Put Net OI Put OFR Combined OFR Combined Strength

FII -2,04,110 -0.37 +1,59,749 +0.13 -0.25 Moderate Bearish

DII -4,08,069 -1.00 +25,359 -1.00 -1.00 Strong Bearish

Client +10,14,983 -0.30 -3,53,673 -0.15 -0.23 Moderate Bearish

Pro -4,02,804 +0.78 +1,68,565 +0.16 +0.47 Strong Bullish

S1 Futures OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S2 Options OFR : -1 (Bearish)

S3 Cash Market : 0 (Threshold: ₹3,800 Cr)

Total : -2/3 → Moderate Bearish

Hedging Warning : Not Active

Note: Conviction Score is FII only. For DII, Client, and Pro — use options Combined OFR as their primary directional signal. Futures OFR is especially misleading for FII due to portfolio hedging — for other participants it is more likely directional but options Combined OFR remains the stronger signal.

FII sold ₹1,350 Cr in cash while building index shorts through Short Buildup across Nifty and BankNifty with Weak Bearish FSR, expanding index futures net shorts to -234,451 contracts. Stock futures flipped from Long Buildup to Short Covering with OI down -95,750, revealing FII closed long stock positions while adding index shorts. Index options Combined OFR turned Weak Bearish at -0.11 and stock options Moderate Bearish at -0.25, confirming the shift is directional not hedging—conviction score of -2/3 (Moderate Bearish) with no hedging warning shows cash selling, index short buildup, and stock short covering aligned across all three independent signals. DII absorbed the selling with +₹2,801 Cr cash accumulation but their index and stock options Combined OFR both collapsed to Strong Bearish, revealing they are hedging their long positions with puts rather than holding unhedged, signaling they sense FII's conviction and are protecting rather than adding.

Monday's session broke the week's established hedged-long-stocks structure decisively—FII shifted from portfolio protection into genuine bearish directional conviction across both index and stocks, abandoning the protective posture entirely. This is the first material reversal of the week's pattern and signals FII made a deliberate decision to reduce equity exposure rather than rotate within it, with DII's defensive hedging confirming they recognize the shift in institutional intent.

FII carries Moderate Bearish conviction with index shorts at -234,451 contracts and stock shorts building through short covering, representing a genuine directional shift away from the week's hedged structure. Monthly expiry today (30-Jun) forces rapid position resolution, and with FII now genuinely short both index and stocks while DII hedges their longs with puts, the institutional environment has shifted from contested-but-stable to FII-directional-with-DII-defensive—Client opposition in index futures persists but their options hedging shows they lack conviction to defend their long positions outright.

All metrics are for informational and analytical purposes only. Signals reflect past positioning and do not guarantee future market direction. This report reflects prior day data — it is not live data, as exchanges do not provide FII/DII data in real time. Past data does not reflect future directional activity of FII/DII. Do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This is not financial advice. Always consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before taking any decision.